Will the Fed raise rates again this year, and what does it mean for your mortgage?
In this October 2026 Monthly Market Report, I break down why the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, why "there isn't 1 housing market, there are 4," and exactly what buyers and sellers can do right now.
⏱ CHAPTERS
00:00 Welcome: October 2026 Monthly Market Report
00:14 Fed hikes: short-term pain for long-term gain
01:11 Why the Fed raises the federal funds rate
02:10 The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates (but it does influence them)
03:27 Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury
04:20 How Fed hikes can impact the housing market in the short term
05:21 Will the Fed raise rates again this year?
06:43 Tips for buyers
09:03 Tips for sellers
11:14 Expert outlook: what could open the door to lower rates
11:45 There isn't 1 housing market right now. There are 4.
12:35 1 in 4 buyers are paying cash (and where cash rules)
13:27 Cash purchases at the high and low ends of the market
14:42 All-cash transactions: opportunities and tips
15:58 Mortgage rates are back at the high end of their range
16:35 Mortgage rate expectations are creeping up
16:53 Heavily financed buyers: opportunities and tips
18:03 2 in 3 homeowners have a rate below 5%
18:42 The lock-in effect: opportunities and tips
20:05 New home inventory is building up
20:33 Areas with new construction: opportunities and tips
23:13 Wrap-up and key takeaways
📌 KEY TAKEAWAYS
• The Fed influences mortgage rates but doesn't set them. Rates track the 10-year Treasury yield.
• Markets are pricing in the possibility of another Fed hike this year (odds as of 9/28).
• There are four housing markets right now: cash buyers, buyers who need financing, locked-in owners, and builders.
• 1 in 4 buyers are paying cash.
• 2 in 3 homeowners have a mortgage rate below 5%, so the lock-in effect isn't going away anytime soon.
• New-home supply is elevated, and builders are leaning on price cuts, buydowns, and incentives.
• Concessions are at a record high, so negotiate a buydown or credit instead of waiting on rates.
🏡 THINKING ABOUT BUYING, SELLING, OR REFINANCING?
Let's talk through your numbers and build a plan that fits your goals. Visit https://kevinbrierton.com
👤 ABOUT YOUR HOST
Kevin Brierton, Branch Manager, SVP and Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist, NMLS #599873
Luminate Bank, NMLS #1281698
Scottsdale, Arizona | 22 years in the mortgage industry
"Your No Excuse Lender"
📊 SOURCES
Market report slides and data: Keeping Current Matters. Underlying sources shown in the video include Freddie Mac, Macrotrends, CME FedWatch, NAR, Realtor.com, Fannie Mae, Pulsenomics, FHA/FHFA, and the U.S. Census Bureau.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This video is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a commitment to lend. Rates, programs, and guidelines are subject to change. All loans are subject to credit approval.
#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FedRateHike #HomeBuyers #HomeSellers #RealEstate
ABOUT KEVIN BRIERTON
I have been in mortgage banking since 2004. During this time, I have successfully helped more than 1,650 families with more than $500 Million in residential mortgages, placing me consistently among the top in the industry. I spend the 1st Friday of every month studying all of our products, guidelines, & lending criteria.
In addition, I work closely with our underwriting & secondary markets to fully understand all our mortgage products to ensure I am able to empower more families to gain homeownership. Our team of fully trained mortgage specialists has the attitude of “how can we make this loan work” rather than just assuming it won’t. Other Lenders find problems, we find solutions, and we are excited to find a solution for you & your Family!
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